Atiku And His 2027 Calculations||Emmanuel Oladesu

 

For Atiku Abubakar, Wazirin Adamawa and former Vice President, it is not yet time for retirement from politics. To him, the vocation is for life. The goal is the attainment of power, to which he has committed a 30-year-old struggle.

The 2023 presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has returned to the drawing board. He is already gazing at 2027, according to his associate, Daniel Bwala, a lawyer. The old political warhorse is exhibiting an example of courage and resilience, a rare optimism that has consistently served as the propeller in a journey of over three decades characterised by ups and downs, successes and failures, hectic struggle and fruitless search for the elusive key to Aso Villa, the seat of government.

The corollary of what Bwala has told the world is that the former Vice President is not afflicted by any fatigue but is being spurred by a renewed dedication to pursue an unfinished business. Like Major General Muhammadu Buhari, who got the key after the fourth attempt, Atiku remains undaunted.

By 2027, the eminent politician would have been involved in the presidential contest, either as an aspirant or candidate, seven times. The significance of his involvement is that as an eminent Nigerian and a politician of high pedigree, he has been in a vantage position to exercise his inalienable right to seek the highest office in the land in accordance with the Electoral Act and the Constitution.

It is noteworthy that voters have also exercised the constitutional right to reject his bid.

By 2027, Atiku, who is over 76 years now, will be 80. To his fanatical supporters, old age is not a barrier. Even, in other climes, like the United States of America, 81-year-old President Joe Biden is not showing any extreme signs of tiredness or exhaustion. He is still on the firing line, insisting he will contest for a second term.

Atiku may have been motivated by the resilience and consistency of two American politicians – Lyndon LaRouche and Harold Stassen – who got their parties’ presidential nominations seven and nine times. But neither man became president .

The former Vice President might have also read the history of former American President Abraham Lincoln who contested for political offices several times before he was finally elected president of the United States.

In his book, titled: Accidental Civil Servant, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, hinted that some marabouts had prophesied that Atiku would be president. But they never gave details about time, season, and circumstances; neither did they disclose the conditions for attaining the rare feat then, now, and in the future.

Besides, the greatest motivation for Atiku is the quest for self-actualisation. Like his old friend and associate, President Bola Tinubu, who worked hard to realise his lifetime ambition through a rare diligence,  hardwork and divine grace, Atiku sees the presidency, which has been eluding him since 1993, as the ultimate. Last year, it was psychologically painful and demoralising to him and his supporters that Asiwaju Tinubu, an experienced politician but a first-time presidential contender, defeated him.

Indeed, Atiku justified his worth in 2023 by garnering over seven million votes. The only dark side was that the figures were insufficient to earn him the crown. Compared to the over eight million votes Asiwaju Tinubu got, it appeared that despite his frantic efforts, Atiku made some wrong calculations which made Asiwaju to pull the rug off his feet.

Other permutations also fell flat. The recourse to ethnicity, the subtle religious campaigns by some of his fans, the resort to blackmail, the doubtful grounds for post-election litigation, social media tirade, and the deployment of other forms of propaganda did not yield the desired results.

Bwala has indicated that the old lion can still roar. The PDP chieftain also gave some reasons for believing that it was not yet the end of a political career for a juggernaut. He said Atiku has the experience, particularly in the private sector, the capacity, knowledge, and wisdom to give Nigeria a worthwhile political leadership. Bwala, who projected what could be described as the strengths of the Adamawa-born politician, was, however, silent on his weaknesses as a candidate and the factors that may puncture his aspiration to appeal to the generality of Nigerians, if he offers himself again for leadership.

Further confirmation from the horse’s mouth may be required. But the ruling party and other opposition platforms should also be able to read the body language of the former Vice President. It is doubtful that they will treat his ambition, which portends a formidable threat, with levity, except to their peril.

The impetus may be that Atiku has always got the ticket of his party, as he once remarked with confidence. But what now appears as a sense of entitlement may as well be infuriating to other ambitious, dedicated, and relatively younger party stalwarts who may not be inclined to step down in the future primary, despite the possibility of enlisting certain partisan regional leaders to mount pressure when the time comes.

How much of post-mortem Atiku has done since his 2023 ambition collapsed at the poll and Supreme Court is unknown. It was his closest to getting the coveted crown. Never has such an opportunity come his way. Also, never has a devastating blow been done to his plans.

The future is in the womb of time. But it does not appear, for now, that Atiku will be the major face of the opposition in the long journey to 2027. His overtures to the former Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi, have been rebuffed. The thinking in Obi’s camp may be that he can even get to the presidency if he puts in more effort. Here lies the imminence of another electoral disaster.

Apart from a proper synergy and collaboration among political parties, reminiscent of the cooperation between Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP), and a section of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which culminated in the birth of the All Progressives Congress (APC), cross-ethnic collaboration is also a factor in winning the presidential election.

Instructively, President Tinubu, winner of the 2023 presidential poll, won in four of the six geo-political zones. The poll result was a product of bridge building. But what has now happened, or what is likely to happen, between now and the next electioneering, to convey the impression that PDP will wax stronger? Has the party resolved to put its house in order and embark on genuine reconciliation at the national and state levels?

Up to now, the PDP has not resolved the zoning challenge, which polarised the platform ahead of the 2023 poll. The issue is still likely to shape the next general election. The assumption will be that if the North had produced a President for eight years, should the South be denied? This view may gain prominence if the Tinubu administration delivers on its mandate to Nigerians.

Echoing the Southern sentiment, former PDP Deputy National Chairman, Chief Olabode George, said: “I don’t really understand the rhetoric in some quarters these days that a member of the party from the North is strategising or plotting to return as the presidential candidate of our party in 2027.

“A northerner cannot be the presidential candidate of our party in 2027, pure and simple. The earlier some members pushing this agenda knew this truth, the better for our collective sanity.”

The argument is that if the North, represented by Buhari, had occupied the seat for eight years, the South should also occupy it for eight years, in the spirit of equity, fairness, and justice.

The battle for the control of party structure in the main opposition will be fierce, now that the declaration of ambition on Atiku’s behalf has inadvertently kicked off the 2027 race when the INEC has not released the timetable. What is likely to happen in the PDP is that future presidential aspirants will start sharpening their arrows ahead of the next convention of the party to produce key members of the National Working Committee (NWC) who will play prominent roles at the primary.

The battle for the election or selection of the next national chairman of the PDP would be shaped by the 2027 permutations of the gladiators. An unresolved puzzle is which zone should produce the next chairman. The mood of the party is not likely to accommodate the selection of the party chairman and presidential candidate from the same bloc zones. The most dominant and influential bloc in the PDP is the governors’ forum. How will Atiku unite them and rally them to embrace him as a candidate?

What happens in the PDP in the months ahead will determine how far Atiku will be able to go in the attempt to realise his presidential ambition. Obviously, he may not be able to go far, if his political platform does not align with his modus operandi, no matter the clout he may bring into the race next time.